Analyzing Amaro's offseason issues: An early look at the 2011 Phillies

By Andrew Marcus
Sportswriter for Montgomery Media

Follow me on Twitter @amarcus515

The second Phillies' first basemen Ryan Howard decided not to swing at the 3-2 pitch in the bottom on the ninth inning last Saturday the relationship between the fans of Philadelphia and the baseball team in their city became the bumpiest its been since the beginning of 2007.

Maybe it is too much to demand a World Series appearance and not be to call a major league leading 97 wins a successful seasons. But what's done is done and there is only 120 some days until spring training. The Phils had about 139 million locked into 19 players for 2011, but there still some tweaking that has to be and will be done by Phillies' general manager Ruben Amaro.

Here's a closest look at the 2011 roster with what spots need to be filled, who I think should fill them and who most likely will.

STARTING ROTATION - The easiest five-some to predicit. The big three and Joe Blanton all are under contract and the Phillies will be widely considered to have the best rotation in baseball (maybe second to that team that Philadelphia does not want to talk about from the NL West)
1. Roy Halladay
2. Cole Hamels
3. Roy Oswalt
4. Joe Blanton
5. Kyle Kendrick is arbritration eligible and there is no need for Amaro to spend money in this area. The fifth starter will come from within the organization. Vance Worley is a long shot for the spot, but will be given a chance to beat out Kendrick in Clearwater.

BULLPEN - This is the area that will be redcorated the most. Brad Lidge and Ryan Madson will both be back in the backend, but they still could use a guy that can be a fill in closer if one or both men falter. If that back-up closer happened to be lefty also, it would be a bonus.
Brad Lidge
Ryan Madson
Danys Baez
Antonio Bastardo
David Herndon
I think Amaro should try and re-sign free agent Jose Contreras. The 80-year old cuban was solid in the pen for the Phillies and in the 6th and 7th inning roll he is just as good as anything you will find on the market. The Phillies will most likely part ways with Chad Durbin and J.C. Romero. Any cheap solution should be able to replace Durbin, but I think Amaro needs to man-up and sign a lefty like Twin's free agent Brian Feuntes. The lefty has closing experience and strike out the Joey Votto's and big left handed bats of the world.

LHP Brian Feuntes

CATCHERS - No talk here. Carlos Ruiz and Brian Schneider are both under contract and "Chooch" has turned himself into a top 10 all-around catcher in the bigs.

FIRST BASEMEN - After signing for the big bucks this season the A-Rod treatment for Ryan Howard's lack of production in the postseason is understandable. Still, if healthy he is one of biggest sluggers in the game and is almost impossible to replace.

MIDDLE INFIELD - I don' think anyone would mind seeing Wilson Valdez resigned after the admirable job he did with Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley battling injuries all season. If Willy V wants a slight rise it might be OK for Amaro to hand it over. Sometime go with what you have and not what Aki Iwamura or Chirsitan Guzman may bring.

The bigger question on people's mind are the struggles of J-Roll and Utley. They both are under contract next year and they are not going to be traded. I think if the could move Rollins they would, but Utley is still irreplacable. It is impossible to replace his production at second base on a down year. Just chalk it up as a big ending for Utley and assume he bounces back. For J-Roll, just keep saying to yourself only one more year.

THIRD BASEMEN - Placido Polanco is under contract and I stand by my stance that he was the best fit for the Phillies over players like Adrian Beltre. Sure, Beltre had a great year in Boston, but now he commands a ton of many again, much like he did when he blasted bombs for the Dodgers only to bust in Seattle. The Phillies hit team funks becuase the swing out of the strike zone and "Polly" is one guy the currently have control of that does not do that.

OUTFIELD - Ah yes. This is were it gets sticky. You can't move Ibanez. He's under contract for one more year and is probably out the door in 2012 with Rollins, but nobody wants him right so you are stuck. You could trade Shane Victorino to make room to resign Jayson Werth, but I almost think that is counter productive. They both a key parts to the core team.

I think the Phillies want you to believe the are OK with Ibanez, Victorino and a Dominic Brown/Ben Francisco platoon, but I say they look for an everyday guy on a inexpensive one-year deal to hold down the fort unitl Ibanez is gone and Brown is ready.
If they keep Werth and trade Vicotrino you are looking for a switch hitter or right hander that will not clog up the bases. The best option available would be Melky Cabrera, which in that case would not be worth the risk.
I'd say let Werth walk and tell him to have fun in Boston (my bet) and Amaro should sign either Magglio Ordonez or Jeff Francouer. Francouer is cheaper and younger than the 37 year old Mags and definately plays a better defense, but Ordonez's .300 average when healthy is something the Phillies could really benefit from.

BENCH - Welcome back Ross Gload, Ben Francisco and Dom Brown. It will be easy to replace Greg Dobbs and Mike Sweeney's production considering it was next to nothing. Some names to keep in mind would be Austin Kearns and Christian Guzman.

Here's what my 25 man roster would look like...
C Ruiz
1B Howard
2B Utley
3B Polanco
SS Rollins
LF Ibanez
CF Victorino
RF Magglio Ordonez **
BN Valdez
BN Austin Kearns **
BN Schneider
BN Gload
BN Brown
BN Francisco
SP Halladay
SP Oswalt
SP Hamels
SP Blanton
SP Kendrick
SP Worley
RHP Contreras
LHP Bastardo
LHP Brian Feuntes **
SU Madson
CL - Lidge

Week 9 Montgomery Media HS Football Predictions (winner in yellow)
Upper Merion @ Plymouth-Whitemarsh
Souderton @ Central Bucks East
Germantown Academy @ Episcopal Academy
Academy of the New Church @ Bristol
William Tennent @ Neshaminy
Upper Dublin @ Wissahickon
Central Bucks South @ Pennridge
Lansdale Catholic @ West Catholic
Calvary Christian @ Jenkintown
Cheltenham @ Upper Moreland
Abington @ Council Rock South
North Penn @ Hatboro-Horsham
Neumann-Goretti @ Bishop McDevitt
Boyertown @ Owen J. Roberts
Perkiomen Valley @ Spring-Ford
LaSalle @ St. Joe's Prep
Pope John Paul II @ Methacton
Springfield @ Pennington
Delco Christian @ Lower Moreland
Archbishop Wood @ Cardinal O'Hara

Last week's record: 16-5
Overall record: 98-44
**did not predict in week 1

Pennridge Season Statistics (4-4)
Rushing: Jesse Knepp 126-638, 7 TD; Brandon Cope 92-506, 6 TD; Kyle Peters 61-138, TD; Kim 6-96, TD; Carter Peters 23-93; Kyle McCabe 10-40; James Marrero 4-25; Mackenzie Crawford 4-18; Dylan Moore 2-5; Kyle Bigam 1-3.

Passing: Kyle Peters 42-93, 695, 5 TD, 6 INT; Jesse Knepp 0-1-0, 0

Receiving: Rocky Ferrier 20-315, 3 TD; Brandon Cope 11-199; Jesse Knepp 7-31; Dylan Moore 2-47, TD; Kyle McCabe 2-45; Jake Newman 1-64, TD.

Interceptions: Kyle McCabe (2), James Marrero (2), Mackenzie Crawford (1), Kyle Bigam (1)

Sacks: Brandon Cope (5), Jake Newman (2), Forrest Short (1), Mackeznie Crawford (1)

Field goals/Field goals attempted: Caya 1/3

XP/XPA: Dan Caya 13/14; Jon Dubyk 1/2

Continental Conference Standings

North Penn 7-1,5-0

Souderton 5-3, 4-1

Central Bucks West 6-2, 3-2

Central Bucks East 4-4, 3-2
Quakertown 3-5, 2-3

Pennridge 4-4, 1-3
Central Bucks South 3-5, 1-4

Hatboro-Horsham 2-6, 0-5