Never too early to look ahead...Top 10 HS football teams heading into 2011

By Andrew Marcus
Sportswriter for Montgomery Media

Follow me on Twitter @amarcus515

After going 131-49 on predictions in the regular season (I did not predict in week one) it's fair to pat myself on the back. I think since June 2008 when I started working at Montgomery Media I have learned a lot about the high school football area.

One thing I learned is teams like North Penn, LaSalle and Archbishop Wood will always be in the fight for a league title no matter how big or talented the graduating class is. Other teams will rely on sophomore and juniors that gained experience this year and hope they can come back improved and ready to take their team deep in the playoffs.

The state champions have not been crowned yet and I have not even started covering basketball, but nonetheless here are my top 10 teams in Montgomery Media's coverage area heading into 2011.

1. Archbishop Wood - It was a heartbreaking ending for the Vikings last Friday, but I know 100 coaches and 1,000 players that would kill to be playing in the Eastern State Final. The Vikings lose skilled leaders to both sides of the ball , but most would say their best players all return. The likes of Joey Monaghan (QB/S), Desmon Peoples (RB), Brandon Peoples (FB) and Colin Thompson (DE/TE) make them the early favorite to win the league, the district and possibly state title.

TE Colin Thompson

2. North Penn - A lot of people like to attribute the Knights year-in and year-out success to the size of their school, but there are schools similar in size that did not win three straight league titles. The Knights make sure the younger kids are ready to step in when it's their chance. Corey Ernst, the Knights' QB came on strong at the end of the year and should be able to pick up where he left off for his senior season.

3. LaSalle - The Explorers will lose a big contingent of their playmakers to graduation, but I'm not going to be the one to doubt Drew Gordon, who will be bring back his QB, Mike Magarity. Jamal Abdur-Rahman and Kevin Forster will be sorely missed, but I'm sure they will be fighting for a spot in the state playoffs when it's all said and done.

RB/CB Jamal Abdur-Rahman

4. Souderton - The Indians will bring nearly ever player that found the end zone for Big Red in 2010. This Indian team may be suited well enough to knock off the Knights for the first time since the SOL was realigned.

5. Upper Dublin - The Cardinals flew to the top of the league this season as junior QB Andrew Derr emerged and senior Anthony Williams took off in the running game. Count on Bret Stover to coach his team up to take it to the next level in Derr's senior season.

QB Andrew Derr

6. Cheltenham - In a similar situation to the Flying Cardinals, the Panthers shocked the forecasters and became a force in the SOL. While QB Kenneth Cropper will return in 2011 and should make the Panthers contender, the losses of Dan Rouse, Chris Stephens and Tedi Lester will make a tough offseason.

7. Plymouth-Whitemarsh - The P-W program took a giant step in the right direction under first year coach Dan Chang and I fully expect them to take another leap forward in 2011. The have a ton of young athletes returning that can make plays and QB Russhon Phillips is always a dual threat and one play away from a score.

QB Russhon Phillips

8. Abington - Coach Tim Sorber just knows what he needs to do if he want to make the playoffs. This year he moved talented running back Julien Ireland to QB and that got them into the second round of districts. I do not know what the Ghosts have up their sleeve for 2011, but I'm sure they will be in contention for a league title.

9. William Tennent - The winless seasons seem like ancient history after an up-and-down, yet successful season for the Panthers. The experience they gained this year and the confidence the accrued, just knowing they can compete should help them make a run at a playoff spot. Shakat Kofa (QB) and Connor Geiger (FB/LB) should lead the charge.

10. Upper Moreland - The Golden Bears had big aspirations come crashing down in the post season and they will lose a large, talented senior class, but it is time to put Adam Beach in the conversation will some of the top coaches in the area. It will be one of the deepest leagues next year, but I expect the Bears will find a way to return to the playoffs and use this year's early exit as motivation to go further.

Werth another look...The Nats overpay for former Phillie

By Andrew Marcus
Sportswriter for Montgomery Media

Follow me on Twitter @amarcus515

Fast forward to the year is 2014. The Washington Nationals' Ryan Zimmerman is on his way to another gold glove. Stephen Strasburg is the favorite to earn his first Cy Young award and Bryce Harper is expected to win Rookie of the Year, yet the Nats are fighting to stay out of the National League East dweller. They have some talented young players, but all there money is clogged up in a 35 year old right fielder Jayson Werth.

On Sunday the Nationals opened their wallets and signed the 31-year-old free agent to a seven year 126 million dollar deal. The former Phillie deserved his pay day after four great years in the city of Brotherly Love, but if D.C. thinks they are getting 'THE GUY' the will surely be disappointed.

Jayson Werth averaged around a .280 average with 30 homers, 85 RBIs and 90 runs in his three years as a starter for the Phillies, but it was in a hitter friendly park with a ton of talent in the lineup surrounding him. I have said it for years and I continue to say Werth's all-star numbers were a product of playing in the perfect situation.

With Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard hitting ahead of Werth in the lineup he was the least of opposing pitchers problems. While teams chose to pitch around Utley and Howard, Werth saw a  healthy dose of fastballs. Now granted, props to him for doing something with the opportunities, but it is nothing the Phillies should feel is irreplaceable.

I commonly compare Werth to other slightly above average outfielders and imply they could do Werth's job with that kind of protection. I have been quoted as saying Nationals' Josh Willingham, Padres' Ryan Ludwick and Tigers' Magglio Ordonez could all duplicate Jayson's worth in Philadelphia.

The numbers Werth has put up may put him in the Matt Holliday and Jason Bay pay tier, but those two former all-stars produced as the main guy, not the guy hitting behind the guy. Holliday has panned out to this point in St. Louis and Bay struggled with injuries in New York. I'll take Werth to be the worst of that trio for the next seven years. He had a chance to be successful in Boston hitting behind Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis and possibly Adrian Gonzalez, but in Washington Ryan Zimmerman is not enough to hide the holes in Werth's game.

Werth's struggles with runners in scoring position are well documented. When Ryan Howard was on the DL last year and Werth was moved to the 3-hole he pressed. Philadelphia fans were packing his bags. Werth failed so miserably as "THE GUY" that Phillies' manager went to an aging Raul Ibanez with Howard rehabbing. Werth may be selective and see a lot of pitches at the plate, but more often than not he whiffs at off speed pitches. While the best players adjust to off speed pitches, Werth is a guesser at the plate.

Washington had to overpay to land Werth, but it is not the guy I would have overpaid for. If they had offered 6 years-for-100 million, the same offer Boston came with, they knew Werth would have been slurping New England Clam Chowder by days end. But I stand by stance - if they just paid Werth to hit fourth, protect Ryan Zimmerman and be their top run producer until he is 40 years old they are going to set the organization back a decade.

Now, I will pull back on my stance on the deal slightly at the end of the off season if Washington signs a hitter that can replace former Nats' first basemen Adam Dunn, who signed with the Chicago White Sox last week. Players like Derrek Lee and Carlos Pena would alleviate some pressure on Werth, but he will NEVER live up to 126 million.

This is how the Nationals lineup projects if tomorrow was opening day...

CF Nyjer Morgan
SS Ian Desmond
3B Ryan Zimmerman
RF Jayson Werth
1B Josh Willingham
LF Roger Bernadina
C Ivan Rodriguez
2B Danny Espinosa

In that lineup here is a stat line I predict for Jayson Werth - .260 BA, 21 HRs, 79 RBIs, 60 runs and 10 SBs

That's not exactly earning your paycheck.

Congratulations to Jayson Werth, fore I probably would have taken the money if I was in your situation. But when the Nationals have an unmovable contract in 2017 and not enough money to build around the home grown stars they do have, I will say I told you so.