Sportswriter for Montgomery Media
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Fast forward to the year is 2014. The Washington Nationals' Ryan Zimmerman is on his way to another gold glove. Stephen Strasburg is the favorite to earn his first Cy Young award and Bryce Harper is expected to win Rookie of the Year, yet the Nats are fighting to stay out of the National League East dweller. They have some talented young players, but all there money is clogged up in a 35 year old right fielder Jayson Werth.
On Sunday the Nationals opened their wallets and signed the 31-year-old free agent to a seven year 126 million dollar deal. The former Phillie deserved his pay day after four great years in the city of Brotherly Love, but if D.C. thinks they are getting 'THE GUY' the will surely be disappointed.
Jayson Werth averaged around a .280 average with 30 homers, 85 RBIs and 90 runs in his three years as a starter for the Phillies, but it was in a hitter friendly park with a ton of talent in the lineup surrounding him. I have said it for years and I continue to say Werth's all-star numbers were a product of playing in the perfect situation.
With Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard hitting ahead of Werth in the lineup he was the least of opposing pitchers problems. While teams chose to pitch around Utley and Howard, Werth saw a healthy dose of fastballs. Now granted, props to him for doing something with the opportunities, but it is nothing the Phillies should feel is irreplaceable.
I commonly compare Werth to other slightly above average outfielders and imply they could do Werth's job with that kind of protection. I have been quoted as saying Nationals' Josh Willingham, Padres' Ryan Ludwick and Tigers' Magglio Ordonez could all duplicate Jayson's worth in Philadelphia.
The numbers Werth has put up may put him in the Matt Holliday and Jason Bay pay tier, but those two former all-stars produced as the main guy, not the guy hitting behind the guy. Holliday has panned out to this point in St. Louis and Bay struggled with injuries in New York. I'll take Werth to be the worst of that trio for the next seven years. He had a chance to be successful in Boston hitting behind Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis and possibly Adrian Gonzalez, but in Washington Ryan Zimmerman is not enough to hide the holes in Werth's game.
Werth's struggles with runners in scoring position are well documented. When Ryan Howard was on the DL last year and Werth was moved to the 3-hole he pressed. Philadelphia fans were packing his bags. Werth failed so miserably as "THE GUY" that Phillies' manager went to an aging Raul Ibanez with Howard rehabbing. Werth may be selective and see a lot of pitches at the plate, but more often than not he whiffs at off speed pitches. While the best players adjust to off speed pitches, Werth is a guesser at the plate.
Washington had to overpay to land Werth, but it is not the guy I would have overpaid for. If they had offered 6 years-for-100 million, the same offer Boston came with, they knew Werth would have been slurping New England Clam Chowder by days end. But I stand by stance - if they just paid Werth to hit fourth, protect Ryan Zimmerman and be their top run producer until he is 40 years old they are going to set the organization back a decade.
Now, I will pull back on my stance on the deal slightly at the end of the off season if Washington signs a hitter that can replace former Nats' first basemen Adam Dunn, who signed with the Chicago White Sox last week. Players like Derrek Lee and Carlos Pena would alleviate some pressure on Werth, but he will NEVER live up to 126 million.
This is how the Nationals lineup projects if tomorrow was opening day...
CF Nyjer Morgan
SS Ian Desmond
3B Ryan Zimmerman
RF Jayson Werth
1B Josh Willingham
LF Roger Bernadina
C Ivan Rodriguez
2B Danny Espinosa
In that lineup here is a stat line I predict for Jayson Werth - .260 BA, 21 HRs, 79 RBIs, 60 runs and 10 SBs
That's not exactly earning your paycheck.
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