2012 MLB Awards, Philadelphia Phillies Off-season Outlook, and my best and worst pre-season calls

By Andrew Marcus
amarcus@montgomerynews.com

Follow me on Twitter @amarcus515

Now that the San Francisco Giants have been crowned your 2012 World Champions it is time to look back at what I said, what actually happen, and what we can look forward to in 2013, specifically diving into the home town Philadelphia Phillies' resurrection project.

I went out on a limb by picking the Cincinnati Reds to win the World Series (over the Los Angeles Angels) and they actually played the way  I expected them to. Johnny Cueto's injury in Game One and Aroldis Chapman slowing down toward the end of the season was probably a reason they came up short of making me a genius.

The Angels made everyone look a little loony by missing out on the playoffs completely  but it was not Albert Pujol's fault or Mike Scioscia, like everyone wants to make it out to be. The Halos never could get all five pitchers clicking at the same time, and though Mike Trout and Mark Trumbo had breakout seasons, there were too many full-time players not getting the full-time at-bats to be successful.

2012 MLB AWARDS

NL MVP - Ryan Braun - I probably am not in the majority here, but the Hebrew Hammer put the steroid talk behind and literally carried a historically awful pitching staff to the brink of the postseason. Braun smashed 41 homers and stole 30 bases, drove in 112 and scored 108 himself.  The Brewers had to score six or seven runs a game to make sure John Axford and the relievers could not come in and ruin a good thing. Braun is legit and though his team missed the playoffs, being in the hunt until final week is enough for me to give him the award for the second straight season.
(2) Posey, (3) McCutchen, (4) Kimbrel, (5) Beltran, (6) Molina, (7) Chapman, (8) LaRoche, (9) Bourn, (10) Desmond
NL LVP - Aubrey Huff - I never thought the least valuable player would be on the World Champs, but here he his. Huff has no reason to parade his lucky thong around at this parade, but if he was wearing the little lengerie it did not help. Huff hit .192 with one homer all season.

AL MVP - Miguel Cabrera - Last year I said Matt Kemp was my NL MVP over Braun for flirting with the Triple Crown. Well, this guys actually it did it. When something has not been done since 1967 in those well known categories of homers, RBIs, and batting average you have to step back and say screw sabremetrics. And I know Mike Trout was just as great defensively as offensively, but for me it still goes to the guy who solidifying the Tigers' lineup. The Angels would still have been a similar team with Peter Bourjos in center over Trout. You put Andy Dirks at third base and they are in the cellar of the AL Central. Plus, Cabrera has been great for a decade and he gets my vote based on the last 10 years. Trout will get his.
(2) Trout, (3) Hamilton, (4) A. Jones, (5) Cano, (6) Rios, (7) Beltre, (8) Cespedes, (9) Mauer, (10) Reddick
AL LVP - Chone Figgins - Ever since signing the long term deal with the Seattle, Figgins seems to racking up the least valuable player awards. Figgins only had 30 hits all season even though he was be counted on coming into the year. He is owed nine million dollars a year for another two more seasons.

NL Cy Young - R.A. Dickey - It took me a long time to get on the Dickey bandwagon, but there is not reason a knuckleballer cannot win this award. He still struck out 230 hitters, he helped his below-average team with most games he started, going 20-6 himself. I love what the closer in Atlanta did, but the233 innings edges out the competition.
(2) Kimbrel, (3) Kershaw, (4) Cueto (5), Gonzalez, (6) Chapman, (7) Cain, (8) Hamels, (9) Medlen, (10) Strasburg
NL Cy Yuck - Tim Lincecum - The two-time Cy Young winner turned it around out of the bullpen in the postseason, but every fifth day during the regular season he took the ball and did harm to his club. He never went deep into games, and though he did strike out batters, walks helped his 5.18 ERA bloat to a league high

AL Cy Young - David Price - Picthing in the American League East helps make David Price a run-away winner for this award. Even the Blue Jays and Red Sox, who he faced several times, can smack the ball around. Add the Yankees and Orioles' big bats in there and Price's numbers (20-5, 205 strikeouts, 2.56 ERA) of are insane.
(2) Verlander, (3) Hernandez, (4) Sale, (5) Rodney, (6) Weaver, (7) J. Johnson, (8) Soriano, (9) Shields, (10) Peavy
AL Cy Yuck - Jonathan Sanchez - The only thing that made the Kansas City Royal show a little teeth in their smile this season when Melky Cabrera got busted for steroids. Before that the straight-up trade for Sanchez looked dismal. Sanchez could not hit the strike zone and could not even make it a full season before being shipped away.

NL Rookie of the Year - Wade Miley
(2) Harper, (3) Frazer, (4) Rosario, (5) Aoki, 

AL Rookie of the Year - Mike Trout
(2) Cespedes, (3) Darvish, (4) Parker, (5) Moore

NL Manager of the Year - Davey Johnson
AL Manager of the Year - Buck Showalter

I guess the silver lining for a Philadelphia Phillie fan this year is they never built up big dreams for fans to have them look at strike three or ground out softly back to the pitcher. The Phillies teased at times, but never had the team to compete for a World Series this year. Sticking with the positive outlook, at the Phillies had October to relax and get healthy. Ruben Amaro needs to make some tweaks to the roster, but with the right creative moves, the Phillies could be back in contention in 2013.

STARTING PITCHERS - There is too much money locked up here to even consider an addition from outside the organization. What you see if what you got, and Hamels, Halladay, and Lee should still be plenty to be one of the best in the National League. Amaro may consider moving Lee for a hitter and than splashing into free agency pool for another, but I see that as highly unlikely.
Cole Hamels
Cliff Lee
Roy Halladay
Vance Worley
Kyle Kendrick
BULLPEN -  Last year I expected the Phillies to go out a get a short-term deal closer, but they got Jonathan Papelbon. I don't think it was the best move, but know at least the ninth innings is as stable as any other ninth in the majors. The kids that struggled in 2012 have to come along and Amaro needs to add a eighth inning guy that can be counted on to get lefties and righties out. I would take a long look at Joakim Soria, Matt Capps and Brandon League.
Josh Lindblom
Jeremy Horst
Mike Stutes
Antonio Bastardo
Phillipe Aumont
Joakim Soria 
Jonathan Papelbon

LINEUP -  The Phillies have not had this many holes to fill in their lineup in a long time. You have to believe Ryan Howard and Chase Utley will play over 130 games each this season, though with Utley I will believe when I see it. Utley may see some time at third base, some time at first, but most likely he will stay at second base. Freddy Galvis will play a lot, but off the bench filling in for Rollins, Utley and the mystery third basemen.In the outfield I do not like going out top price outfielder Josh Hamilton and Michael Bourn. I think Torii Hunter and BJ Upton are cheaper (Hunter) and younger options (Upton). As for the mystery third basemen - look for a trade with a team that has a MLB-ready player stuck down on the depth chart in Triple  A. Here a few names to keep in mind - Scott Sizemore (OAK), Danny Valencia (BOS), Chris Nelson (COL), Chone Figgins (SEA), Yunel Escobar (TOR), Nick Castellanos (DET), Michael Young (TEX), Matt Carpenter (STL), Nick Punto (LAD)
SS Jimmy Rollins
CF BJ Upton
2B Chase Utley
1B Ryan Howard
RF Torri Hunter
C Carlos Ruiz
LF Dominic Brown
3B Danny Valencia

BENCH
Darin Ruf
Nate Schierholtz
Freddy Galvis
Lance Nix
Erik Kratz

BEST AND WORST PRE-SEASON PREDICTIONS

Nice Call...
Breakout

Jarrod Parker - Slights adjustments have been made to Moneyball since 2002, like Mr. Beane  does not mind base stealers now, as long as they do so at a high percentage (ex: Crisp and Weeks). But one thing that has not changed is his dependency on young pitchers. This year the A's traded Trevor Cahill and Gio Gonzalez and brought in three guys that will most likely round out the rotation. Parker is the best of the new litter and in Oakland he will be thrown right into fire as they try to get the most out of him before they have to pay him or trade him. Parker will benefit from the Oakland Coliseum and could even be in the running for Rookie of the Year. Parker went 13-8 with 3.47 ERA to help the A's win the West and make the playoffs

Breakout
Jason Kipnis - Kipnis did not the set the world on fire in his first 36 big league games, but this 25-year old second basemen has a chance to become one of the best offensive players at his position. I believe Kipnis is 15 homers and 15 steals in the bag and would not be shocked if he flirts with a 20-20 season. His batting average may suffer in his first full season, but that will only improve with experience. Kipnis hit .260 with 21 homers and 36 steals.  

Breakout
Andrew McCutchen - In McCutchen's first three seasons he has done enough to open eyes of fans, fellow players and even his tight-pocketed organization. With a new contract the speedy center fielder has a strong chance to increase his home run total in his age 25 season. It is not far-fetched to believe he will be the newest member of the 30-30 club. He was 31-20 and missed out on a 30-30 season, but he was the MVP favorite for most of the season

Breakout
Jason Heyward - He has bulked up and slimmed down. He has tried to cut his swing down and become more selective. Heyward is still a work in progress and there is no telling when he will figure it out, but I am positive he will. It may be May or August, but sometime this season the 22 year-old will put it all together and become one of more feared hitters in baseball like we all thought he would be. Heyward should get his share of MVP votes after his 27 homers and 82 RBIs.

Bust

Jesus Montero - I hate to throw a 22-year old's career down the drain, but Seattle is place you go to drink Starbucks, listen to Nirvana and get caught dancing in the rain. Not a place to become the next feared hitter in the major leagues. I think Montero is in a tough position, having no position (catcher, first base, or DH), and in his rookie year being the savior of one of the worst offensives in the game's long history. We will know if he is special if he can overcome Safeco's spacious grounds, but my hopes are not high for the former Yankee farmhand. The 15 homers and .260 average is not exactly what Seattle had in mind

Bust

Vance Worley- Much like they write off struggling youngsters people also like to get attached to a player off to a hot start. It happen with Kyle Kendrick winning 10 games in his rookie season, Jay Happ almost being held onto when the right move was flipping him for Roy Oswalt, and now Vance Worley. The Vanimal is most likely better than Kendrick and Happ, but don't even consider him a part of the terrific trio. Worley is a solid fifth starter but nothing more. If you set your expectations for the righty too high you will surely disappointed. His year was cluttered with injuries, but 6 wins and 4.20 ERA isn't getting the job done

You look like a dummy...
Bust

Carlos Beltran - I feel GM John Mozeliak is trying to pull off the same tricks two years in a row and who can blame him after ending 2011 with a champagne bath and a parade? While the Berkman move looked brilliant, the real test will be doing it two years in a row. by buying in on an aging veteran on the cheap. I think Beltran is a big wild card for the Cards. I remain pessimistic about Beltran's ability to perform like the run producer he once was and even stay in the outfield for a full season. His 32 homers and 97 RBIs proved me wrong

Breakout
Daniel Bard - The latest trend in Major League Baseball is to bring a top prospect up from the minors and stick them in the bullpen for a few years to get acclimated to the league and watch the innings limit. Bard is the next player to get his chance at a starting spot and with three quality pitches and body built for 200 innings, the former eighth inning guy has a chance to have a solid first year in the rotation. I can see double digit wins and and 160 strikeouts pitching in Fenway with the run support he is bound to receive. Bard not only walked 43 in 59 innings, he spent most of year in the minors 

Bust

Ian Desmond - How long will it take for coach Davey Johnson to realize that not only is Desmond the cause of a lot of defensive woes, but his offense is not nearly enough to make him a mainstay atop the lineup. Desmond will either being hitting eighth or coming off the bench by the end of the season. My dislike for Desmond went too far as his 25 homers helped keep this offense respectable

Bust
Chris Davis - How many chances will a big league club give a player before they realize it's just not meant to be. Davis is one of those AAAA players, kills it at Triple-A and kills his club  in the show. He is only 25 and they know with regular at-bats he probably could find the seats 20 times, but his strikeouts and poor on base percentage is not worth the reward. The .270 average was solid and he popped 33 homers and helped carry the O's into the playoffs for the first time since 1997.

Breakout
Mat Gamel - Mat Gamel is a bust in most people's mind because he did not stick a few years ago when he was consider untouchable in the Brewers' system. Well they have held onto him and moved him to first base where he defense can not get in the way. The 26 year-old has a chance to have a solid season hitting in the middle of the Milwaukee order. Gamel only played in 21 games for the Brewers


Breakout
Eric Hosmer - It will be his age 22 season and Hosmer has a chance to become one of the elite as his position immediately. Very similar to the Reds' Joey Votto, Hosmer has power to all fields and defense to go with it. Hosmer should blast 30 homers this season and be the cornerstone of the Royals rise to relativity. Everyone's breakout candidate slumped in his sophomore season like no other. He hit .232 with 14 homers in 152 games. 

2012 MLB Playoff Predictions

NLWC: Phillies over Marlins
NLDS: Reds over Phillies
NLDS: Giants over Braves
ALWC: Rangers over Red Sox
ALDS: Yankees over Rangers
ALDS: Angels over Tigers
NLCS: Reds over Giants
ALCS: Angels over Yankees

World Series: Reds over Angels